From James Harkin (Webmaster & Editor of LindseyWilliams.net). Here is a summary of articles of interest from around the world for this week. Please LIKE the Lindsey Williams Online Facebook Page to see stories posted daily regarding the current state of the economy around the world.
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Latest News From August 12, 2016 to August 18, 2016:
- The $6 Trillion Public Pension hole that We’re all Going to Have to Pay For
U.S. state and local employee pension plans are in trouble — and much of it is because of flaws in the actuarial science used to manage their finances. Making it worse, standard actuarial practice masks the true extent of the problem by ignoring the best financial science — which shows the plans are even more underfunded than taxpayers and plan beneficiaries have been told. The bad news is we are facing a gap of $6 trillion in benefits already earned and not yet paid for, several times more than the official tally. - Thanks, Barry! Only 37% of Borrowers Are Actually Paying Down Their Student Loans
In her speech at the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton exclaimed, “ Bernie Sanders and I will work together to make college tuition-free for the middle class and debt-free for all!” How she intends to do that remains something of a mystery, beyond higher taxes on “Wall Street, corporations, and the super-rich.” But it’s hard to imagine the student-loan industry and the burden of student debt getting any worse for taxpayers and borrowers than it is now. A largely overlooked report released in February by the Government Accountability Office suggests that the Obama administration’s policies have exacerbated student debt, which equals nearly a quarter of annual federal borrowing. With only 37% of borrowers actually paying down their loans, the federal student-loan program more closely resembles the payday-lending industry than a benevolent source of funds for college. - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, “Other Banks” Ask Fed to Let them Dodge the Volcker Rule till 2022
A decade after the first cracks of the Financial Crisis appeared – and six years since the Dodd-Frank law was enacted to prevent another Financial Crisis and to pave the way for resolving too-big-to-fail banks when they fail – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and “some other banks” are still trying to delay implementation of the new rules. These banks are asking the Fed to grant them an additional grace period of five years to comply with the so-called Volcker rule, “people familiar with the matter” told Reuters. - Are We Close To Seeing Carnage Unfold?
With traders around the world awaiting today’s release of the FOMC Minutes, several warnings have just been issued. Gerald Celente: Global equity markets are spiking. Records are being broken… Why? Is it strong Gross Domestic Product increases among the world’s leading economies… the United States, China, Japan and eurozone nations that are driving the frenzy? Is it accelerating commerce that’s sending products and services far and wide across the globe that’s increasing corporate profitability — boosting trade, productivity and personal income that’s driving stock markets higher? - US Tax Receipts Have Never Done This Without A Recession
US Federal Tax Receipts are rising at just 1.2% year-over-year (12-mo rolling), slowing drastically from its 13.4% YoY growth in June 2013. While “it's probably nothing,” we thought readers may be interested to note that the last six times tax receipt growth was at this weak a level, the American economy was in recession… So ignore US Tax receipts (hard data), ignore US productivity (hard data), ignore the bond market (hard data), and ignore GDP expectations… but pay attention to the non-farm payrolls headline data – because that's what you're told to do!! - Negative Interest Rates: Bad Policy for European Central Bank
Several economists for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently expressed concerns about moving interest rates into negative territory. They believe it could backfire on the European Central Bank (ECB), making banks less profitable overall and reducing lending. The IMF promotes international monetary cooperation, facilitates trade, and fosters sustainable economic growth for its member countries. In a recent paper on the ECB’s monetary policy, two IMF economists, Andy Jobst and Huidan Lin, warned member banks of the monetary union were struggling to produce profits because of low-interest rates. - US Industrial Production Slumps To Longest Non-Recessionary Contraction Is History
For the 11th month in a row, US Industrial Production fell YoY (down 0.53%) in July – the longest non-recessionary period of contraction in US history. Month-over-month, IP rose 0.7% (beating an 0.3% expected rise) – the best since Nov 2014 – but June was revised notably lower. Overall, all confirming the plunge in productivity seen last week. The decline since its peak in Nov 2014 (ironically the month after The Fed's QE3 ended) is the biggest drop since September 2008. - REPORT: Paul Tudor Jones is slashing jobs at his iconic hedge fund
Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones is laying off about 15% of the staff at his legendary hedge fund, according to a Bloomberg report. The job cuts are a result of investment losses and investor redemptions from the $11 billion hedge fund, according to Bloomberg's Saijel Kishan. The affected staffers include investment managers and support staff, Bloomberg reported. - Cisco Will Cut Up To 5,500 Jobs, 7% Of Staff, Less Than Some Reports
Cisco Systems (CSCO) said late Wednesday that it would cut up to 5,500 positions, or 7% of staff, as part of a restructuring networking giant reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. The cuts, which will begin this quarter, were less than the 9,000-14,000 staff reduction that CRN reported Tuesday was likely. Separately, TechCrunch reported, citing a source that Cisco was aiming for a 15% cost cut that includes layoffs. - Withdrawals Plague Once-Mighty Hedge-Fund Firms Brevan Howard and Tudor
A growing exodus from hedge funds extended to two of the biggest names in the industry Tuesday, Tudor Investment Corp. and Brevan Howard, as disenchanted investors increasingly shun what was once the hottest place to put money. The funds’ problem is clear: They just aren’t performing. Hedge funds and actively managed mutual funds have been underperforming since financial markets began their rebound in early 2009. The average hedge fund is up 3% this year through the end of July, according to researcher HFR Inc., less than half the S&P 500’s rise, including dividends. Funds in the $2.9 trillion hedge-fund sector have now experienced three consecutive quarters of withdrawals for the first time since 2009, according to HFR. - Target tumbles 6.4% as sales drop, outlook cut
Target said Wednesday that its second-quarter earnings fell 9.7% to $680 million and lowered its sales estimate for the rest of the year, citing “a difficult retail environment.” Shares of TGT fell 6.5% for the day, to $70.63. Adjusted earnings per share totaled $1.23, higher than the $1.13 predicted by analysts who were polled by S&P Global Capital Intelligence. - U.S. mortgage demand to buy homes hits six-month low: MBA
Weekly applications for U.S. mortgages to buy homes slipped to a six-month low even as interest rates on fixed-rate home loans fell, according to data from an industry group released on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage activity for home purchases, a leading indicator of housing sales, fell 4 percent in the week ended Aug. 12. It remained 10 percent higher than the comparable week a year earlier. The average rate on “conforming” 30-year home mortgages, or loans with balances of $417,000 or less, dipped to 3.64 percent last week from 3.65 percent, the Washington-based group said. - Lowe’s earnings: $1.31 per share, vs. expected EPS of $1.42
Lowe's on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts' expectations, and lowered its full-year guidance. Shares of Lowe's fell 5 percent in premarket trading following the announcement. Share prices had been down 6 percent. (Get the latest quote here.) The retail home improvement company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.31 per share on $18.26 billion in revenue. Analysts had expected the retailer to report earnings of about $1.42 a share on $18.44 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters. - Global central banks dump U.S. debt at record pace
In the first six months of this year, foreign central banks sold a net $192 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, more than double the pace in the same period last year, when they sold $83 billion. China, Japan, France, Brazil and Colombia led the pack of countries dumping U.S. debt. It's the largest selloff of U.S. debt since at least 1978, according to Treasury Department data. “Net selling of U.S. notes and bonds year to date thru June is historic,” says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, an investing firm in Virginia. - How the Global Warming Scare Began
A great scientist named Roger Revelle had Al Gore in his class at Harvard and the Global Warming campaign was born. Revelle tried to calm things down years later, but Gore said Revelle was Senile and refused to debate. John Coleman documents the entire story and shows how our tax dollars are perpetuating the Global Warming alarmist campaign even though temperatures have not risen in years and years. - The Freest States For Off-Grid Living, Ranked 1-50
New Yorkers enjoy the least freedom in America, while New Hampshire citizens enjoy the most, according to a new report, Freedom in the 50 States, that examines the best states in which to live. The report by the Cato Institute examines everything from tax laws to gun laws to government regulation to education freedom and found that the five freest states are: New Hampshire, Alaska, Oklahoma, Indiana & South Dakota. The five states with the least freedom are: Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, California & New York. - ALERT: Alasdair Mcleod Just Issued A Terrifying Warning
With continued uncertainty in global markets, Alasdair Mcleod Just Issued a terrifying warning. Fiddling While Rome Burns – Macleod’s Terrifying Warning. Alasdair Macleod: Technical analysts seem divided on where gold is going in the short-term. Some think it is consolidating before pushing higher to over $1,400, while others are calling for a steep fall into October, before gold resumes its bull market… - With Global Gold Reserves Nearly Exhausted, Can Anyone Spell Weimar?
With global gold reserves nearly exhausted, can anyone spell Weimar? From The Guardian: “With global gold reserves nearly exhausted, and prices up by 360% in the past decade, this massive supply-and-demand imbalance has fuelled organised crime syndicates looking for new sources of revenue, researchers say, with the result that Peru and Colombia – the world’s top cocaine exporters – now earn more from illegal gold exports than cocaine exports.” - Soros Hack Reveals Plot Behind Europe's Refugee Crisis; Media Manipulation; Cash For “Social Justice”
In the two days since the Soros Open Society Foundation hack by the DCLeaks collective, several notable revelations have emerged among the data dump of over 2,500 documents exposing the internal strategy of the organization, which expose some of Soros' tactics to influence and benefit from Europe's refugee crisis, the opportunistic funding and influence of media organizations, providing cash for assorted “pro-democracy” groups including the infamous La Raza, Soros' funding of various “social justice” organizations while paying to track unfavorable media coverage including that of Pamela Geller. One particular leaked memo, profiled earlier by the Daily Caller, argues that Europe’s refugee crisis should be accepted as a “new normal,” and that the refugee crisis means “new opportunities” for Soros’ organization to influence immigration policies on a global scale. OSF program officer Anna Crowley and program specialist Katin Rosin co-authored the May 12 memo, titled “Migration Governance and Enforcement Portfolio Review.” - Silver is Kryptonite to Gold Cartel Bankers-Bill Murphy
Chairman of GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) Bill Murphy thinks financial markets are way more vulnerable than they appear. Murphy explains, “There are negative interest rates and low interest rates that just keep staying down there, and supposedly things are really good. Look at our Dow at all-time highs, and yet something is really wrong. Of course, this fits into the GATA premise on this whole thing. There’s a lot of quantitative easing (money printing) and propping up of the markets, and it’s on very shaky ground. The plug could be pulled at any time. . . . With interest rates where they are and debt growing all over the place, the reasons to be in gold are off the charts.” - Obama Wants A Third Term And This Is How He Could Make It Happen
Yes, we are all well aware the Constitution limits the Presidency to two consecutive four-year terms of office. Then again, if you weigh the track record of the Obama administration, the Constitution is nothing more than a challenge that he bypasses and circumvents with every given opportunity. Small wonder that he may very well do the same thing with the upcoming presidential elections. Already a sham, the presidential elections are actually a vehicle he can use to grab that “Third Term” for himself. - America: You Will Go Insane Because Of What Your Eyes Will See
A cloud of madness is descending on America, and most of us are completely unprepared for the chaos that will be unleashed during the months ahead. This morning, I was reading through Deuteronomy when I came to a phrase that really resonated with me. In the Modern English Version, this is what Deuteronomy 28:34 says: “You will go insane because of what your eyes will see”. As I read that, it struck me that this is precisely what America is heading for. There are going to be people that have vast quantities of food and supplies stored up that are still going to blow their brains out when they see what happens to this country because they don’t have any hope. Without hope, I don’t know how anyone is going to make it through what is coming. If you think that the unrest and violence in Milwaukee are disturbing, just wait for a while, because much, much worse is on the way. - This Has Been The Worst 12 Months For Floods In U.S. History
Since last October, the United States has been hit by “historic flood” after “historic flood”, and this latest flooding down in Louisiana that is making headlines all over the world has been caused by a “500 year storm“. Even before some areas of the state received more than 30 inches of rain, this was already the worst 12 months for floods in U.S. history, but without a doubt this has put an exclamation mark on this exceedingly unusual stretch of flooding. There are some rivers down in Louisiana that have crested three to four feet higher than their previous all-time records, and Governor Edwards is using the words “unprecedented” and “historic” to describe these floods. So far, 20,000 people have been rescued by authorities, and Governor Edwards even had to evacuate the Governor’s Mansion due to chest-high water in the basement. - Violence Erupts In America’s Heartland As Milwaukee Becomes The Latest U.S. City To Burn
The city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin exploded in violence last night as the wave of chaos and civil unrest that is sweeping across America continues to intensify. At this point, many of our largest cities have become powder kegs of anger and frustration, and a full-blown riot can be set off with a single bullet. In this case, an armed suspect was shot and killed by Milwaukee police as he attempted to evade the police, and his death almost instantly set off pandemonium in the heart of the city. America is being ripped apart, and much more violence is coming. Decades of social decay and economic decline have fundamentally transformed many of our greatest cities, and tensions that have been simmering for a very long time are now being brought to a boil. Sadly, it seems quite likely that we will see even more rage, hatred and divisiveness in the months ahead. - Rothschild's RIT Capital dumps sterling assets as it braces for the latest monetary ‘experiment'
Jacob Rothschild’s investment house RIT Capital Partners has dumped assets priced in pounds this year as it nervously awaits the results of “the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world”. RIT, which considered a merger with rival Alliance Trust in May before walking away, said it was being cautious in “uncharted waters” as government bonds sink into negative yields and central banks around the world ramp up economic stimulus programmes. “The six months under review have seen central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world,” said Lord Rothschild. - Why Doug Casey Thinks We Could See $5,000 Gold
One of the world’s biggest central banks just swung its “sledgehammer.” On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) launched its biggest stimulus package since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. It cut its key interest rate to a record low. It started “printing” money again. And it announced a new “funding scheme.” The BoE launched this massive easy money program to soften the blow of the “Brexit.” As you probably heard, Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) on June 23. The historic event rattled Britain’s financial system. - Another Major Warning Sign for Stocks
Not since 1999 did all three major U.S. stock market indexes – the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq – hit record levels, as they did yesterday. Of course, 1999 proved to be the worst time to buy stocks in 30 years. After a few more months of lollygagging around, the Nasdaq crashed and the Dow and the S&P 500 sold off hard. Nasdaq investors didn’t get back to breakeven for another 15 years. - The New Highs in US Share Market Are they the Prelude to a Crash?
Finally, the Dow made new highs in the face of constant calls for a crash. This past week, in a horse race we would call it a trifecta where the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500,and the NASDAQ all made new record highs. This sent a bunch of analysts to look again and began to proclaim that this was the first time that all three major indices have reached new highs on the same day since 1999. They then look at the charts and pronounce that the 1999 rally lasted only until 2000 and then crashed. Of course that was the DOT.COM Bubble and there was a massive wave of retail investor in the market back then compared to today. - Secrets Of The Elite: Why Forbes’s Rich List Doesn’t Include The Wealthiest Families On The Planet
As Oxfam warns that global wealth inequality is spiraling out of control, we ask why the Rothschilds and Rockefellers are missing from the business magazine's definitive annual guide…with some startling revelations. “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.“ This is a House of Rothschilds maxim, widely attributed to banking tycoon Mayer Amschel Rothschild in 1838 and said to be a founding principle for the highly corrupt banking and political system we have today. Along with the Rockefellers, the Rothschild dynasty is estimated to be worth well over a trillion dollars. How are these powerful families linked to the ongoing crisis of global wealth inequality, why are so many people unaware of their existence, and why doesn’t Forbes ever mention them in their annual list of the world’s wealthiest people? - Under TPP, Corporations Will Replace Nations According to Leaked Document
An obscure Trans Pacific Partnership provision will serve to threaten the very existence of the nation state and replace governmental authority with the power and the whim of the corporation. This secretive provision promises to supplant all national authority with a “Rollerball” type of world. If you are not familiar, Rollerball was a very popular movie which debuted in 1975 and it depicted the planet as being ruled by six corporations in the place of national governments. - Who owns the wind? We do, Wyoming says, and it's taxing those who use it
Not long after it became clear that the robust winds that blow down from the Rocky Mountains and across the sea of sagebrush here could produce plenty of profit in a world that wants more renewable energy, some of the more expansive minds in the Wyoming Legislature began entertaining a lofty question: Who owns all of that wind? They concluded, quickly and conveniently, that Wyoming did. Then, with great efficiency for a conservative state not traditionally tilted toward burdening the energy industry, they did something no other state has done, before or since: They taxed it. - Farmland Bubble Bursts As Ag Credit Conditions Crumble
Aside from a brief pause during the “great recession” of 2009, Midwest farmland prices have been bubbling up for over a decade with annual price increases of 15%-30% in many years. Private Equity and low interest rates no doubt played a role in creating the farmland bubble as “excess cash on the sidelines” sought out investments in hard assets (see “Is TIAA-CREF Investing In Farmland A Harbinger Of The Next Asset Bubble?”). No matter the cause, data continues to indicate that the farmland bubble is bursting. 2Q 2016 agricultural updates from the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Kansas City and St. Louis indicate continued income, credit and farmland price deterioration for Midwest farmers. Lender surveys also suggest that as many as 30% of Midwest farmers are having problems paying loan balances. Declining asset values and incomes have also caused banks to tighten lending standards which has only served to accelerate the decline. - North American Life Insurers “Accidentally” Pile Up Massive Distressed Debt Holdings
Accommodative monetary policy by the Fed has crushed bond income for insurers. According to Bloomberg, 2015 investment income at North American insurers dropped below 2011 levels. Unsurprisingly, in their stretch for yield, insurers added to energy bond positions in 2015 to offset the funding gap. Now, the collapse of oil prices has apparently left North American life insurers in a bit of a pickle with distressed debt holdings having doubled in a matter of 6 months as IG energy bonds turned to junk. - Russia Deploys S-400 Missile System To Crimea, As Tensions With Ukraine Soar
In the latest escalation between the Kremlin and Kiev, yesterday we reported that Ukraine had put its troops near the Russia border on combat alert, following an incident that according to Russia was an attempted terrorist attack. Recall that Russia’s secret service, the Federal Security Service, said on Wednesday that it had foiled “terrorist acts” prepared by Ukrainian military intelligence against infrastructure in the territory, with the aim of disrupting Russia’s parliamentary elections due on 18 September. Kiev denied the allegations. In response to the alleged operation, Putin said he was pulling out of international peace talks on the conflict in eastern Ukraine. He said he was no longer ready to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, and German and French leaders in the so-called Normandy format, which has been used for negotiations. - Here It Comes—–Ukraine’s ‘October Surprise’
When a Russian FSB agent and a Russian soldier were killed by a team of Ukrainian saboteurs, and one of the captured Ukrainians was shown on Russian media in handcuffs, US ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt tweeted: “US government has seen nothing so far that corroborates Russians allegations of a ‘Crimea incursion’ & Ukraine has strongly refuted them.” Apparently two dead Russians don’t count for much in Pyatt’s book: perhaps Putin personally killed them, and the whole thing is a set up. - Trump’s Tax Plan, Clinton Corruption and Mainstream Media Propaganda
Little change in the markets on Monday. We are in the middle of vacation season. Who wants to think too much about the stock market? Not us! Yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to reform the U.S. tax system. His proposals are nothing new – simplification, fewer brackets, eliminate loopholes for rich people. But he also targeted the “carried interest” exemption. “Carried interest” – or “carry” – is a term used in the financial industry to refer to what is essentially a performance bonus. - Deutsche Bank ist Kaputt
It looks like Deutsche Bank is heading toward failure. Why might we be concerned? The problem is that Deutsche is too big to fail — more precisely, that the new Basel III bank resolution procedures now in place are unlikely to be adequate if it defaults. Let’s review recent developments. In June 2013 FDIC Vice ChairmanThomas M. Hoenig lambasted Deutsche in a Reuters interview. “Its horrible, I mean they’re horribly undercapitalized,” he said. They have no margin of error.” A little over a year later, it wasrevealed that the New York Fed had issued a stiff letter to Deutsche’s U.S. arm warning that the bank was suffering from a litany of problems that amounted to a “systemic breakdown” in its risk controls and reporting. Deutsche’s operational problems led it to fail the next CCAR — the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review aka the Fed’s stress tests – in March 2015. - As Libor Blows Out To Fresh 6 Year Highs, A $28 Trillion Debt Question Emerges
Two weeks ago, when looking at the recent surge in short-term funding rates in general, and Libor in particular,we said that this is the result of a scramble by various funds to change their asset ahead of an October 14 deadline for money market reform. Recall that “On October 14, 2a-7 money fund reforms will require some prime money market mutual funds (those that invest in non-government issued assets) to float their net asset value (NAV) or, under certain circumstances, to impose redemption gates and liquidity fees on redemptions. Rather than face these regulatory constraints, many investors have started pulling assets from prime funds, and a number of prime funds have converted to government-only funds (which are exempt from these regulations). Since late-2015 alone, prime fund assets have declined by nearly $450 billion, reducing the supply of dollars that funded private sector short-term liabilities.” - THE COMING BREAKDOWN OF U.S. & GLOBAL MARKETS EXPLAINED… What Most Analysts Miss
The U.S. and world are heading toward an accelerated breakdown of their economic and financial markets. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of analysts fail to understand the root cause of this impending calamity. This is also true for the majority of precious metals analysts. The reason for this upcoming systemic collapse of the U.S. and Global markets is quite simple when you understand the information and are able to CONNECT THE DOTS. While it has taken me years of research to be able to finally put it all together, new information really put it all into perspective. - The Coming Global Silver Production Collapse & Skyrocketing Silver Value
The global economic and financial system is in much worse shape than I originally thought. New data and information suggest that the collapse will occur much quicker and with more dire results. This will cause global silver production to literally fall off a cliff within the next decade. Again, this is far worse than anything I imagined before. As I mentioned, new information and data point to a rapid “Thermodynamic collapse” of the U.S. and Global Energy Industries. According to Louis Arnoux, from his article, Some Reflections On The Twilight Of The Oil Age:” - Negative Rates for the People—– German Bank Surrenders to Draghi’s NIRP
A small German bank just went negative on RETAIL bank deposit rates as opposed to corporate (business) deposit rates. IMF blog says ECB sub-zero rates work …. but for whom? Seniors, savers? European banks were clobbered during the global financial crisis and have never recovered. With the ECB throwing everything and the proverbial kitchen sink at the stagnant economies of Europe, THIS is the IMF’s definition of working for the lenders? - David Rosenberg: “This Market Makes No Sense”
We are not sure what happened to the abnormally cheerful, permabullish, mutant variant of David Rosenberg who appeared so abruptly on the scene four years ago calling for higher yields and rising inflation (driven by wages of all things), but we are glad that the skeptical variation has once again taken control, because it is only the latter that was capable of writing such observant, unvarnished and non-sugarcoated pieces like the one posted this afternoon in the National Post, in which Rosenberg joins all other carbon-based traders in admitting that it is now “next to impossible” to make sense of this market. - Funny Money Accounting—-Why Social Security Will Be Bankrupt In 10 Years
Here follows a deconstruction of Rosy Scenario. It underscores why the nation’s entitlement based consumption spending will hit the shoals in the decade ahead. In their most recent report, the so-called “trustees” of the social security system said that the trust fund’s near-term outlook had improved. So the stenographers of the financial press dutifully reported that the day of reckoning when the trust funds run dry has been put off another year—-until 2034. The message was essentially take a breath and kick the can. That’s five Presidential elections away! Except that is not what the report really says. On a cash basis, the OASDI (retirement and disability) funds spent $859 billion during 2014 but took in only $786 billion in tax revenues, thereby generating $73 billion in red ink. - 13 Biggest Political And financial Distortions In The World
I think a lot about history. Thomas Carlyle, the Scottish philosopher, said, “The happiest hours of mankind are recorded on the blank pages of history.” It’s true. Remember studying US history in high school? You learned all about Woodrow Wilson and World War I. Then you learned about FDR and World War II, but you skipped over Harding/Coolidge/Hoover in between. What happened in the 1920s, anyway? Only the biggest economic boom in the history of the US, coupled with massive technological progress and improvements in standard of living. The best time ever. You might think people would want to study the conditions that led to that prosperity, so it can be repeated. - The Planned Fracturing Of The EU This Jubilee Year Continues: Greece, Italy and Spain Consider Exiting
When we started The Dollar Vigilante in 2010 we stated that the worldwide central banking fiat money system would collapse within the decade. It was just math. Government debt continues to mount and the only way to pay interest on the debt is to print more money. The US government, alone, has doubled its debt in the last eight years, from under $9 trillion to now well over $19 trillion. Almost every Western government has done similarly and central banks continue to print money to make the dead system seem like it is still alive. Early in 2015 we caught on to an occult (hidden) timeline by which major financial events occur called the Shemitah, and the year after called the Jubilee (or Super Shemitah). On the end day of the once-every-seven-year Shemitah, in 2015, we wrote, “Eurozone Collapses, Borders Erected Across Europe On Shemitah End Day“. - US Treasury Yields Go Negative Everywhere But Here
Negative interest rates are an existential threat for insurance companies, pension funds and other financial entities that need positive investment returns to survive. As rates on government bonds have gone negative in Europe and Japan, the above companies have been big buyers of US Treasury bonds, which still (for some reason) continue to offer positive yields. But according to a Bloomberg analysis published today, Treasuries’ positive yield has recently evaporated when the cost of hedging currency fluctuations is included. - Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event Of All Is Coming
We are at an incredible moment in history. US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system. In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective. In the third quarter of 2015, during the end of the Shemitah year, world stock markets had their worst quarter since the last Shemitah year in 2008… and then they bounced back up. In January, world stock markets had their worst starting month to the year in history… and then they bounced back up. And, most recently, the day after Brexit, which was 7 days, 7 weeks, 7 months and 7 years since the Shemitah end day in 2008, world stock markets again had their worst day in history… and then bounced back up. - Is The Gold Market Really Manipulated?
On the heels of gold’s biggest year-to-date surge in 36 years, a question arose: Is the gold market really manipulated? “The illusion of central bank control is in full force.” — Dylan Grice. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Incrementum AG Liechtenstein: Is The Gold Market Really Manipulated? There is a fine line between intervention (in most cases government, resp. political intervention) and manipulation (with the more negative connotation of “exertion of influence”). The fact that central banks intervene massively in bond markets (e.g. via quantitative easing) and currencies (e.g. the Swiss franc or the renminbi) and that prices are at times steered to the decimal, is officially known and considered legitimate. In many cases, the free price discovery process is therefore little but a myth… - Pentagon’s Sloppy Bookkeeping Means $6.5 Trillion Can’t Pass an Audit
The Defense Department over the years has been notorious for its lax accounting practices. The Pentagon has never completed an audit of how they actually spend the trillions of dollars on wars, equipment, personnel, housing, healthcare and procurements. An increasingly impatient Congress has demanded that the Army achieve “audit readiness” for the first time by Sept. 30, 2017, so that lawmakers can get a better handle on military spending. But Pentagon watchdogs think that may be mission impossible, and for good reason. - Memo To The Donald——–10 Great Deals To Save America
But there is a sliver of hope. If Donald Trump is elected, eschews a law and order crusade and does not capitulate to the destructive policies of the Wall Street/Washington/bicoastal establishment, there is a way forward. The political outlaw who considers himself to be the world’s greatest deal-maker would need to do just that. To wit, a President Trump determined to rid the nation of its mutant regime of Bubble Finance at home and failed interventionism abroad would need to make Ten Great Deals. - How Long Can Economic Reality Be Ignored? — Paul Craig Roberts
Trump and Hitlery have come out with the obligatory “economic plans.” Neither them nor their advisors, have any idea about what really needs to be done, but this is of no concern to the media. The presstitutes operate according to “pay and say.” They say what they are paid to say and that is whatever serves the corporations and the government. This means that the presstitutes like Hitlery’s economic plan and do not like Trump’s. Yesterday I listened to the NPR presstitutes say how Trump pretends to be in favor of free trade but really is against it, because he is against all the free trade agreements such as NAFTA, the Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic partnerships. The presstitutes don’t know that these are not trade agreements. NAFTA is a “give away American jobs” agreement, and the so-called partnerships give away the sovereignty of countries in order to award global corporations immunity from laws. - *Breaking: China & BIS Negotiating Deal to Settle Global Contracts in GOLD at $5,000/oz! – Jim Willie
Chinese finance officials and the Basel-based BIS are NEGOTIATING A GLOBAL REFORM OF ALL BILATERAL CONTRACTS. They strive to alter US Dollar based contracts, and CHANGE THE CONTRACT TERMS TO GOLD SETTLEMENT. THE CHINESE & BIS ARE WORKING ON A GLOBAL CONTRACT AT THE $5000 GOLD PRICE… The big US banks are dead, as in giant hollow reeds. Such has been the Jackass refrain for eight straight years. They are insolvent monsters and destroyers of wealth and capital. They are massive criminal enterprises. Events prove the case well. The Too Big to Fail policy has instead assured the wreckage and destruction of the USEconomy. Save the big banks, but ruin the capital base. The USGovt under the management of the banker cartel since the 9/11 event, which they orchestrated in a bold move, has systematically brought down the macro business sector, permitted the USDollar platforms to decay completely, and rigged the financial markets in every conceivable arena. The central bankers are running scared. - Japan to Lend Spy Vessels to Philippines as Tensions Rise in South China Sea
In a bid to stymie Chinese influence in the region, the Japanese government plans to deliver two patrol vessels to the Philippines, and provide surveillance aircraft. While Tokyo has its own dispute with Beijing over a series of islands in the East China Sea, it will also devote resources to the South China Sea, aiding Manila in its territorial dispute, by providing ships and aircraft. “We are talking about big-sized, 90-meter long vessels,” Masato Ohtaka, deputy foreign press secretary for Japan’s foreign ministry, told reporters. - Self-Sufficiency Will Be The Only Way to Survive: “Nothing Will Have Any Value Except Food”
Here, Charles Hugh Smith argues that the scheme for world order will ultimately lead nowhere, because globalization is will leave everyone hanging. Instead, becoming self-sufficient and providing for food, energy and resources will be the lasting challenge – in the long run. While nations rise and fall, this will remain an important goal for the individual who can attain a certain degree of freedom by securing one’s own survival and needs for food and energy, and in turn providing an engine of wealth for anyone that they can trade or sell with. - On The Brink Again: “Huge Housing Bailout Coming” As Fannie/Freddie Seek $126 Billion From Taxpayers
This could be the trigger event everyone has been waiting for; it certainly was in 2008. Like the conditioned animal, punished with a shock repeatedly, it produces more fear, and adrenaline and stress response during the build-up from the time the bell is rung and the shock is delivered. The actual shock is actually a relief, even though the animal fears the pain. It will all happen again, once the bell rings. Here, we know the crash is coming. The banks have orchestrated it, the Federal Reserve is setting the pace and preparing the bed in which we must all lie. A devastating blow to the economy is building up again. Which one will bring it all crashing down, and which will simply prove once again that we are held captive by a dangerous and failing economy that could soon wipe us all out? This could be 2008 all over again; on the other hand, it could be much worse. Either way, there is every sense that things are just getting started. - What Do They Know That We Don’t? World’s Billionaires Are Stockpiling Cash: “Taking Money Off the Table”
When things risk going wrong, cash is king… and kings have cash. And with enormous fortunes being made – and destroyed – overnight. The world’s billionaires have shifted into stockpiling an average of 22% of their income in cash because they are terrified the economy could crash. Many of these people literally helped to build the system we all now rely upon, and now they are holding cash, gold and other assets our of fear that stocks will crash and digital instruments of wealth could be undermined, compromised or have their balance destroyed. - Here’s how the government is stealing more than ever before
As you’re likely aware, Civil Asset Forfeiture is a legal process that allows the government to seize assets from private citizens without any due process or judicial oversight. People can be deprived of their private property without ever having been even charged with a crime, let alone never having actually committed one. The horror stories of its abuse are endless. People who have never done anything wrong have had their life’s savings, homes, and business assets confiscated without so much as a warrant. This constitutes theft, plain and simple. And like most government initiatives, it started small. Again, the statistics from 1986 show $93.7 million worth of cash and property was seized by the government. By 2014, that figure had grown 4,667% to a whopping $4.5 billion. - Kenya Starts Pumping Oil
The Kenyan government said it has approved a plan for the production of between 2,000 and 4,000 barrels of crude daily. The plan includes an upgrade of road infrastructure to transport the crude to Kenya’s largest port in Mombasa, as well as the construction of a pipeline from the oilfields in northern Kenya to Lamu on the coast. This city is set to become Kenya’s main oil export terminal in the future. Kenya’s oil deposits are located in the northwestern part of the country, most notable among them the South Lokichar field, which is being explored by a joint venture between Tullow Oil, Maersk Oil, and local Africa Oil. Last month the three companies said they were going to restart drilling at the field in the last quarter of this year, planning four wells initially and later possibly expanding the number to eight. By the end of next year, South Lokichar should produce some 2,000 bpd of crude. - Nigeria Set to Split if North Strikes Oil, says Nigerian President
Nigeria’s former minister of aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode, tweeted on Thursday that President Muhammadu Buhari planned to break up Nigeria if oil is found in the north of the country—the north, which the Niger Delta Avengers have claimed are for now, unjustly tapping into the oil wealth of southern Nigeria. Buhari has ordered the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to start drilling for oil in the northeastern part of Nigeria. In late July, the NNPC said in a statement that it was intensifying drilling in the Chad Basin and other parts of the Inland Sedimentary Basin in search of oil. - For What It’s Worth: Chevron Will Sell Assets Totaling $5 Billion in Asia
According to the Wall Street Journal, the second biggest American oil company, Chevron, is to sell properties in Asia that are worth up to $5 billion. On Thursday, the Journal reported that Chevron will begin to sell offshore China assets this month. The California-based giant is hoping to make $10 billion from sales as part of their attempt to slash costs and adjust to cheaper oil prices. The report also stated that Chevron’s stake in an offshore oil field venture with CNOOC Ltd could raise up to $1 billion on its own. CNOOC Ltd is China’s state-owned oil company. Sources claim that this could be an attractive asset to both Chinese energy firms and sovereign funds. - America Is ‘Tantalizingly Close’ To Energy Independence, Analysts Say
America will be “tantalizingly close” to being energy independent by the year 2020, according to analysts at the Raymond James (RJ) investment firm. America imported 65.3 percent of its oil in 2005, according to the RJ analysts, but the U.S. only imported 24.2 percent in 2015. RJ projects the U.S. will import just 11 percent of its daily oil needs by 2020, according to CNN Money. Future oil imports will be met almost entirely by Canada and Mexico. - Did OPEC Just Issue A Warning For Oil Prices In 2017?
OPEC upgraded on Wednesday its 2016 projections for world oil demand growth to 1.22 million barrels a day (mb/d), up by 30,000 b/d from its previous estimate, but warned that there were “lingering concerns” that refiners in the U.S. and Europe may cut processing rates, which could decrease the demand for crude. In its Monthly Oil Market Report that came out on Wednesday, OPEC said that now its latest estimates peg the total oil demand at 94.26 mb/d. For 2017, global oil demand is expected to grow at the same level anticipated last month; that is, going up by 1.15 mb/d from 2016 levels. The total 2017 oil consumption is projected to hit a new record of 95.41 mb/d, OPEC noted. - China, Russia must join hands to counter US in Asia: Chinese state media
Chinese state media on Friday urged Moscow and Beijing to join hands to offset the growing threat posed by the deployment of a US anti-missile defence system in South Korea and a possible deployment in Japan. “It is only a matter of time before Japan has THAAD on its soil,” an editorial in the Global Times warned. “Washington is ambitious to build a global anti-missile system so missile activities in China and Russia can be put under close surveillance, which will disable China and Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence against the US,” it said. Beijing has said Washington’s decision last month to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system would only worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula. Both Russian and Chinese Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi have criticised the US move. - Big Unwind Begins in San Francisco, Miami, New York, Houston: Rents in “Primary Markets” Sunk by Apartment & Condo Glut
This is how it is happening in Miami: A heroic building boom in Greater Downtown has created a phenomenal condo glut just when federal regulators decided earlier this year to track down money laundering in the real estate sector. It coincided with Brazil and Venezuela – Miami’s largest feeder markets – falling into political turmoil and economic chaos respectively. The “strong” dollar doesn’t help. And buyers from abroad have become scarce. No one was prepared for this. The slowdown started a year ago when the resale inventory began to balloon. According to a new report by Integra Realty Resources for the Miami Downtown Development Authority, in May listings soared 58% from two years ago, to about 3,000 units, while monthly sales plunged 43%. And new supply keeps on coming: In the second quarter, nearly 7,500 condos were under construction, with another 1,550 being marketed for sale. - Profits Plunge, Sales Drop at Macy’s. Slashes Jobs, Closes Stores. Stock Jumps 18%
It’s been a tough quarter for Macy’s. Again. Sales dropped 4% to $5.87 billion in the second quarter, it reported today. It had already closed 41 “underperforming Macy’s stores” in its fiscal year 2015. So among the remaining company-owned stores, comparable sales fell 2.6%. Operating income plunged 73% to $117 million. Net income plummeted 95% to a nearly invisible $11 million, or 3 cents a share. The first quarter, on a year-over-year basis, was even worse. So for the first half, sales dropped 5.7%, operating income 53%, and net income 82%. - Negative Rates for the People Arrive as German Bank Gives In
When the European Central Bank introduced a negative interest rate on lenders’ deposits two years ago, few thought things would ever go this far. This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee — population 5,767 — said it’ll start charging retail customers to hold their cash. From September, for savings in excess of 100,000 euros ($111,710), the community’s Raiffeisen bank will take back 0.4 percent. That’s a direct pass through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate. - When Will the Record Corporate “Debt Binge” Collapse?
After a historic “debt binge,” leverage levels among the 2,200 largest US corporations, excluding financial institutions, have reached “record highs,” Standard and Poor’s warns. It blamed the Fed-fueled “excessive liquidity and low borrowing costs in the capital markets,” along with declining profits. Now these companies, and “particularly those at the lower end of the credit spectrum,” of which there are more and more, “are as vulnerable to downgrades and defaults as they were in the period leading up to the Great Recession – and perhaps more so.” - Ron Paul Rages At The “Phony Job Recovery”
Last Friday saw the release of a bombshell jobs report, with headlines exclaiming that the US economy added over 250,000 jobs in July, far in excess of any forecasts. The reality was far more grim. Those “jobs” weren't actually created by businesses – they were created by the statisticians who compiled the numbers, through the process of “seasonal adjustment.” That's a bit of statistical magic that the government likes to pull out of its hat when the real data isn't very flattering. It's done with GDP, it's done with job numbers, and similar manipulation is done with government inflation figures to keep them lower than actual price increases. In reality there are a million fewer people with jobs this month than last month, but the magic of seasonal adjustment turns that into a gain of 255,000. - China Furious, French Energy Giant Desperate, as UK Stalls $24bn Nuclear Deal
The UK government’s decision to postpone the signing of a controversial, tripartite $24-billion nuclear energy deal with state-owned companies from China and France could end up having serious ramifications not only for Britain’s relations with the world’s second largest economy, but also for the financial health of one of France’s biggest corporations. In an opinion piece in today’s Financial Times, China’s ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said the Hinkley Point deal represents a “crucial historical junction” for relations between the U.K. and China, which has a one-third stake in the nuclear power station that was scheduled to be built by France’s majority state-owned energy giant EDF. - European Close Sparks $5 Billion Selling-Panic In Gold Futures
Someonce decided to wait until Europe closed to dump $5 billion of notional gold into the markets (36k contracts)… makes perfect sense… 22,000 contracts in 10 minutes… 36,000 contracts… And Silver is following the same path… - ALERT: BIS Intervenes In The Gold Market To Aid Battered Gold Shorts!
esterday King World News reported that a major swap dealer, who is heavily upside down on short positions in the gold market, is now in trouble. KWN then posed the following question: If the price of gold continues to surge, will some of the entities who are over-exposed short the gold market go insolvent? Or will the price of gold be brought down so the troubled shorts can regroup? And today, all the sudden… Well, some price capping in the gold market has been quite apparent in the last couple of trading sessions, but today it was reported that $5 billion of panicked paper gold futures selling occurred right after the physical market closed in London. But what really happened? Was it really panic or something else? - Chesapeake Energy exits the Barnett Shale with a whimper
Chesapeake Energy, once the proud face of the shale gas drilling boom in North Texas, is transferring its 215,000 acres of natural gas assets in the Barnett Shale to a Dallas company backed by a global private equity firm. Chesapeake is not receiving any cash for the assets — which include about 2,800 operating wells — in turning it over to Saddle Barnett Resources LLC, a company backed by First Reserve, an equity and investment firm focused solely on energy assets, Chesapeake announced Wednesday. But by leaving the Barnett, which Chesapeake first entered in 2004 and where it became a major player, the company hopes to boost its operating income between $200 million and $300 million a year through 2019. And the company said it will eliminate about $1.9 billion of future midstream and downstream commitments. - Return on UK government bonds turns negative
The return on some UK government debt turned negative after the Bank of England missed its target in a new bond buying operation. The Bank had offered to buy government bonds, or gilts, as part of its new quantitative easing (QE) programme to stimulate the economy. But the bank fell £52m short of its £1.17bn target when it failed to find enough sellers. That has driven up prices and pushed down the return or yield, to investors. As bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. Buying government bonds is often considered a safe investment but they now offer a tiny, in some case negative, return. On Wednesday morning gilts maturing in 2019 and 2020 were yielding -0.1%. - One simple reason why gold can still jump 50%
Heike Hoffman is a 54-year old fruit merchant in a small town in western Germany. She has no formal training in finance. She’s not running a multi-billion dollar portfolio. And yet, as the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, “[w]hen Ms. Hoffman heard the ECB was knocking rates below zero in June 2014, she considered it ‘madness’ and promptly cut her spending, set aside more money, and bought gold.” She’s right. It is madness. There’s $13+ trillion worth of bonds in the world right now have negative yields, much of which is issued by bankrupt governments (like Japan). Stock markets around the world are at all-time highs even as corporate profits have been in long-term decline. - Europe's Credit Investors Are Seeing Bubbles and Still Adding Risk
Credit investors are in a bind. Central banks have pushed bond yields to record lows, which has nudged investors into riskier securities in search of higher rates. Meanwhile, central bank stimulus has caused credit markets to rally, thus attracting inflows to the sector, meaning investors have more money to put to work amid ever-diminishing yields. That's the takeaway from a Bank of America Merrill Lynch's survey of 50 investors in European credit. Their biggest fear is that central banks are creating bubbles. - El Salvador Downgraded by Moody’s as Government Debt Rises
El Salvador’s sovereign debt rating was downgraded to B1 from Ba3 by Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday and my be cut further as the government struggles to control a rising debt burden. The country’s debt-to-GDP-ratio will surpass 60 percent by the end of the year, Moody’s said, and economic growth of 2 percent means the government must “implement aggressive fiscal consolidation measures involving both revenues and expenditures” to stabilize debt levels. - Hedge Funds Press Banco Popular for Puerto Rico Deposits
Hedge funds that own Puerto Rico bonds are putting pressure on Banco Popular over commonwealth funds deposited at the bank that they say should go to them. Lawyers representing the Ad Hoc Group of General-Obligation Bondholders sent a letter Thursday to Banco Popular de Puerto Rico in San Juan, notifying the bank of the group’s rights and remedies regarding government funds redirected to meet other obligations. The so-called clawback revenue should be used to help repay general-obligation debt because the island’s constitution says those securities must be repaid before other bills, the group said. The commonwealth defaulted on about $1 billion of principal and interest due July 1, including $780 million for general obligations, the largest payment failure in the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market. - World due for a serious crisis unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime
Jim Rogers speaks with Michael Covel on troubling trends of crime and violence around the world, Europe, US stocks and the upcoming serious crisis - Chelsea Clinton: Now that Scalia’s Gone We Can Enact Gun Control
While campaigning for her mother recently, Chelsea Clinton admitted that the left is planning to use the Supreme Court to enact greater gun control if a Democrat wins the presidency this fall. Chelsea Clinton said Thursday at an event in Maryland that there is now an opportunity for gun control legislation to pass the Supreme Court since Justice Antonin Scalia passed away. “It matters to me that my mom also recognizes the role the Supreme Court has when it comes to gun control. With Justice Scalia on the bench, one of the few areas where the Court actually had an inconsistent record relates to gun control,” Clinton said. “Sometimes the Court upheld local and state gun control measures as being compliant with the Second Amendment and sometimes the Court struck them down.” Clinton then touted her mother’s record on gun control issues and knowledge that the Supreme Court has an effect on whether many gun control laws stand. - ‘We should nationalise German banks' Warning Deutsche Bank teetering on edge of CRISIS
A TOP economist has warned that Germany's biggest bank is teetering on the edge of crisis and they only way to protect it against future shocks is to nationalise it. Martin Hellwig said stress tests carried out by the European Central Bank revealed the Deutsche Bank would be left in a precarious position in the event of another financial crisis. While it would probably not go bust in a fresh downturn – he predicted the bank which is crucial to the German economy would face serious equity problems. He said: “Putting it short: for a long and serious crisis there simply wouldn't be enough money.” - This trend tells you everything you need to know about America’s future
Long ago in the Land of the Free, if you wanted to start a saloon, you rented a space and started serving booze. You didn’t have to go through years of petitioning a bunch of bureaucrats for permits and licenses. If you weren’t qualified or good enough at your job, your reputation would suffer and you’d go out of business. This is the way it used to be for just about every industry and profession. It wasn’t until 1889 that the US Supreme Court ruled in Dent v. West Virginia that states had the right to impose “reasonable” certifications or licenses for various professions. At first, most states only licensed physicians, dentists, and lawyers. In fact, by 1920, only about 30 occupations in the US required any sort of licensing. By the 1950s, about 5% of US workers required a license to perform his/her job. Today that number has risen to 30%, and climbing. - China Expects Worst Ag Output Plunge in 50 Years and Food Inflation as Historic La Nina Arrives
The 2016 La Nina is set to be bigger than 1998 and that was one of the strongest ever. It was a bad hurricane season in the Southeast United States, and the effects of La Nina lasted for more than 2 years, eventually draining natural gas inventories due to colder than normal winters, sending prices to $10 / MMBtu. China is also concerned due to flooding and the effect on food prices. - We Live in Dangerous Times—-Three Flashpoints For War
We are sitting atop a volcano that could erupt at any moment. Indeed, the only question is not whether it will explode, but when – and where. For this impending seismic event has multiple pathways to the surface, spread across no less than three continents. Europe, North Africa and Middle East. - Soaring Debt Has U.S. Companies as Vulnerable to Default as 2008
U.S. companies have taken on so much debt that they’re at least as vulnerable to defaults and downgrades as they were leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings Tuesday. Corporate leverage in the U.S., excluding financial firms, is at the highest level in 10 years, driven by a combination of low interest rates and slowing profits, S&P analysts Jacob Crooks and David Tesher wrote. This has resulted in record leverage ratios across a universe of 2,200 companies, they wrote. Junk-rated firms are particularly at risk because the credit cycle may have peaked and future tightening in interest rates could shut the spigot on new borrowings right when the companies would want to refinance their debt. “With the level of leverage that we’re seeing, some of these more-peripheral stressed sectors are going to experience some challenges to obtain new financing as well as refinancing,” Tesher said in an interview. “It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.”
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